But in 200/8, you can't get the damage you need and fill the activations you need. The best mage to team up with Elminster in 200/8 is the Adventuring Wizard, I feel, and he's still not enough.
I'd agree with PK's analysis, based on damage - a 200/8 El band will simply never generate the kind of damage you need to overcome a band with serious HP.
Of course, they don't call him the 'Old Sage' for nothing; nor for nothing does is he mentioned as one of the iconic scoundrels in the D&D multiverse in the current Complete Scoundrel book. The key with El in 200, IMO, is not to set up for a 'fair fight'.
Disclaimer: I have far less experience with El in 200 than with epic El in 500, and no actual tourney wins with El in 200, so take this advice with as large a grain of salt as necessary.
Using confusion is a good thought; as noted, if the spell works, you're almost certainly golden. For this reason, when playing 'tricky El', casting Mystra's curse and getting it to stick is an absolute must - there are a number of creatures who can reliably save vs DC 18, but not many of those can reliably save twice vs DC 18. And keep in mind that the DC listed for Mystra's curse on El's card doesn't include his Spell Focus 2, so the actual save DC is 21; good enough to affect most titans in 200. I'd argue that if you're up against an enemy titan, you'll want to Quick-Cast Mystra's curse if you get a shot at hitting the titan and it passes its initial save. If he saves against both shots, you're odds of winning go down significantly; on the other hand, if your opponent rolls reliably well on anything, be it attack rolls, saves, or initiatives, your odds of winning go down.
If you're going to win by trickery, you're going to need some tricky spellcasters, and none is trickier thus far than the Gnome Trickster. You'll also need an anti-Trickster piece to protect against invisible-Dancers and Berserkers, so you should also likely add the Aasimar Favored Soul. "But doesn't the Aasimar negate the advantage of your Trickster, too?" I hear you ask. Sure, if you burn the Trickster's invisibility sphere early, as most current strategies do. Keep in mind, though, that the Trickster can cast his sphere later in the match as well, and with his Combat Casting, even being based doesn't prevent it. And if your opponent goes after the Trickster and eliminates him, you've still got an 'installed spare' in Elminster.
But the sphere is for once you have the lead; how do you get the lead? Mystra's curse has obvious defensive benefits, but it also has offensive benefits as well - even a relatively low save effect has a substantially higher chance to affect if the target has to roll twice and take the worst result. Which is where hold person comes in.
You're way ahead of me.
The Goliath Cleric of Kavaki is tailor-made for 100-point Elminster. Yes, the Cleric is slow, but a caster band isn't trying to approach, so your speed is a minimal disadvantage. Yes, his attack bonus is relatively low, but against low-AC targets (like Shadowdancers and Frenzied Berserkers), he'll still hit reliably. (Also, don't forget the bless and magic weapon the Aasimar can provide.) Against a Paralyzed opponent, the Cleric deals an automatic 40 damage, which can then be augmented via snake's swiftness by both the Trickster and El. (You're still going to have trouble handling titans like the Forgepriest that are immune to hold person, but sadly the only non-epic source for hold monster is the Lich Necromancer, who can't be put in CG.)
Last but not at all least, the Cleric's 20-point heal is activation-worthy, and gets duplicated on El's card as well.
Round out with a number of cheap, fast activations to help ensure that you don't fall behind on assault points:
Elminster of Shadowdale 100
Goliath Cleric of Kavaki 36 (136)
Gnome Trickster 27 (163)
Aasimar Favored Soul 20 (183)
Wild Elf Raider 6 (189)
Timber Wolf 5 (194)
Xeph Warrior x2 6 (200)
You'll probably have a much harder time dealing with ranged bands that don't need to approach than with beater bands that do, though even then you can choose to burn one invisibility sphere early for the approach (and leave the AFS back as tile-grabber) and save the other for cloaking once ahead on points; it's probably not auto-loss, though I'm sure it'll feel like it during setup. For this reason I'm not even going to suggest it as a significant 'tourney band', though it definitely counts as a bad match-up for a number of currently popular tourney bands, most of which are low-save CG bands.
Just my $0.02US.
--
Pauper